The Shape of My Commute, part 5

A simpler chart. This is only directly observed estimates (red line) vs. actual times (blue line). The point at noon is "fake" so that the shape of the commute is easier to see.

I still feel like the accumulated, averaged estimates from Google maps are too low, but that may just be the effect of the bad days having more psychological impact. This chart below shows directly observed estimates (red line) vs. accumulated, averaged estimates (blue line). I presume that, after some number of direct observations, the red line could be smoothed to something that would closely match the blue line, but I don't know enough about statistics to figure out what that number of observations would be.

Or maybe the commute is really getting worse.

Here, also, is a link to the Google spreadsheet with the data.

The Shape of My Commute, part 4

More actual data. More questions.

The Average Estimate numbers from Google Maps for the morning look slightly optimistic (5% - 10% low).

The evening numbers are much farther off, more like 25% low.

Don't know if I'll ever know why. I can, however, come up with a "realism factor" that I can apply to the Google Maps numbers to get something closer to my Actual observed numbers.