Starting collecting actual data. After three data points it's not looking good for the estimated times, but confirming my gut feel that the estimated times are too low. I added an "actuals" column of data (shown in red). The spikes show the data points I've collected.
Still, from the estimates I can get the overall shape (e.g., commute times at each slot relative to each other), even if the absolute values are wrong. Overlaying the actual data will then give me the picture I need.
I'm guessing that we will see a wider variation between estimated and actual close to the peak times. We'll see if that guess proves out as I collect more actuals.
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